Development of Photovoltaic Power Output Prediction Technology

Overview

In anticipation of the increase in photovoltaic power plants toward the realization of a decarbonized society, we are working on developing photovoltaic power output precition technology and increasing its accuracy .

Background

Under the conventional system, electricity generated by photovoltaic power plants were purchased at a fixed price called FIT (Feed in Tariff). It is expected that the number of photovoltaic power plants operating under schemes other than FIT will increase in the future, as exemplified by the start of FIP—a new purchase method—in 2022. At photovoltaic power plants operating under a non-FIT, who has photovoltaic power plants need to predict the power output and face the risk of paying an imbalance cost*.

The Daigas Group has developed weather forecasting technology at the level of a weather company based on knowledge of fluid analysis acquired through years of experience. Using this technology, we are highly accurately predicting photovoltaic power output.

* Imbalance cost: A fee arising from a difference in planned and actual power output when operating a photovoltaic power plants

Details

A proving test was conducted on an actual site on photovoltaic power output prediction made by the Energy Technology Laboratories of the Daigas Group based on weather forecasts and conducted on the prediction accuracy of an overseas company operating a prediction business.

Based on the test results, we have increased the accuracy by reviewing appropriate prediction logic for different situations with different prediction timing and other conditions.

Rendered Image of Utilization

Our power output prediction technology can be used to reduce the imbalance cost of photovoltaic power plants and can be combined with demand prediction technology for supply and demand management. Using these technologies, we aim to efficiently supply renewable energy to our customers.